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Market Outlook PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Thursday, 01 May 2014 20:05

Stocks appear to be adhering to our short term outlook that we are crossing the T's and dotting the i's on a major top. I look for next week to be a big reversal week down that should set off the resumption of the bear market. Bonds have rallied strongly as it sniffs out recession while stocks are in LaLa Land (as usual). The Russell 2000 is in our 1130-1145 sell zone.

Gold and silver had a rough day before paring losses. Both metals blasted down to new lows but did not close below those lows. Prices must catch a bid tomorrow. I am risking a weekly close below 1277 on gold and 18.90 on silver. Tomorrow should be a market mover with the NFP. Get ready for more volatility.

 
Market Update 4/30/14 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Thursday, 01 May 2014 00:35

Fed statement states that the U.S. economy is picking up speed (lol) while rates will remain low forever. This was enough to kick start the markets. The Dow did post a closing all time high. The perfect scenario is to have the markets carry into next week then give a huge weekly reversal. The Russell 2000 is the index to short. The rule is to sell weakness not strength and the Russell has been a huge laggard. Todays close puts the S&P about 15 points under its last high so we have very little room to run. I think the Russell should be shorted from 1130-1145.

Gold and silver were once again slammed. Silver held a higher bottom thus far and gold actually had a steady day. Gold is still outperforming silver. Again, I think this is the buy of the year but price action hast to confirm my outlook soon. Tomorrow and Friday (NFP number) will be key.

 
Market Update 4/2914 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Tuesday, 29 April 2014 20:58

Stocks were mostly higher again on a Tuesday. This is also 1 day away from the FOMC meeting. The glaring weakness in all this is the performance of the Russell 2000. This index is being sold aggressively on every bounce. It is waaaay overvalued and will soon be coming down a lot lower. It is the index to short and we will see what the Fed statement is tomorrow. If we get a bounce up towards yesterday's high, I will start nibbling on short side. The S&P and Dow are close to prior highs and have an outside chance at a token new high. This will be unconfirmed by small cap stocks.

Gold and silver recovered from earlier steep losses. The gold market is a ticking time bomb that puts it up 200 dollars in no time. We are long gold from 1305-1280 and long silver from 19.51. Time to go fishing and let the positions work.

 
Market Update 4-28-14 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Monday, 28 April 2014 21:58

The volatility in the stock market is a precursor to a large decline coming. This is indicative of major league topping action. Depending on the Fed statement, it is possible to get that 1 last pop in the big cap stocks to a token new high. This is far from certain. Investors should be on red alert. If we should spike up next week into the new high zone, it is time to aggressively sell the market in my opinion. Stay tuned.

Gold and silver were capped today. I don't believe that they will stay down much longer. With the geopolitical risks and my expectation that the Fed statement will be rather dovish, I look for gold and silver to post a nice run over the next couple of months.

 
Market Update PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Friday, 25 April 2014 17:52

Stocks are continuing their consolidation. I am looking for the big cap stocks to make 1 last run towards new highs in the next couple of weks. This view would be negated if we take out the recent lows. S&P and Dow are much stronger than tech stocks or Russell 2000. This has been our view over the last month. Let's see what happens next week.

Gold posted a solid but unspectacular day. We did regain the 1300 area and we look for higher prices over the next few months. Silver once again was a laggard and traded on both sides of unchanged. The gold chart is flat out bullish while silver is looking more constructive. We should go higher next week.

 
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