The annual meeting at Jackson Hole always provides a valuable opportunity to reflect on the economic and financial developments of the preceding year, and recently we have had a great deal on which to reflect. A year ago, in my remarks to this conference, I reviewed the response of the global policy community to the financial crisis.
Notwithstanding some important steps forward, however, as we return once again to Jackson Hole I think we would all agree that, for much of the world, the task of economic recovery and repair remains far from complete. In many countries, including the United States and most other advanced industrial nations, growth during the past year has been too slow and joblessness remains too high. Financial conditions are generally much improved, but bank credit remains tight; moreover, much of the work of implementing financial reform lies ahead of us. Managing fiscal deficits and debt is a daunting challenge for many countries, and imbalances in global trade and current accounts remain a persistent problem. On the whole, when the eruption of the Panic of 2008 threatened the very foundations of the global economy, the world rose to the challenge, with a remarkable degree of international cooperation, despite very difficult conditions and compressed time frames. And when last we gathered here, there were strong indications that the sharp contraction of the global economy of late 2008 and early 2009 had ended.
Most economies were growing again, and international trade was once again expanding.
This list of concerns makes clear that a return to strong and stable economic growth will require appropriate and effective responses from economic policymakers across a wide spectrum, as well as from leaders in the private sector. Central bankers alone cannot solve the world’s economic problems. That said, monetary policy continues to play a prominent role in promoting the economic recovery and will be the focus of my remarks today. I will begin with an update on the economic outlook in the United States and then review the measures that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has taken to support the economic recovery and maintain price stability. I will conclude by discussing and evaluating some policy options that the FOMC has at its disposal, should further action become necessary.
A number of the world’s biggest banks have launched international roadshows promoting the use of the renminbi to corporate customers instead of the dollar for trade deals with China.
HSBC, which recently moved its chief executive from London to Hong Kong, and Standard Chartered, are offering discounted transaction fees and other financial incentives to companies that choose to settle trade in the Chinese currency.
“We’re now capable of doing renminbi settlement in many parts of the world,” said Chris Lewis, HSBC’s head of trade for greater China. “All the other major international banks are frantically trying to do the same thing.”
HSBC and StanChart are among a slew of global banks – including Citigroup and JPMorgan – holding roadshows across Asia, Europe and the US to promote the renminbi to companies.
The move aligns the banks favourably with Beijing’s policy priorities and positions them to profit from what is expected to be a rapidly growing line of business in the future. READ MORE
A senior Washington intelligence source reported this morning that a serious fight has erupted inside the Federal Reserve over hyperinflation, and that people close to the Fed are going to be leaking details, which means the fight will intensify and become more public. He added that that fight is now erupting inside this week's annual Jackson Hole economic summit of the Fed, whose host, Thomas Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, has publicly dissented from Bernanke's hyperinflationary decisions at each of the last eight meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. And indeed, sources at that Jackson Hole gathering report that it is an extremely interesting one, especially its off-the-record discussions. READ MORE
Ben Bernanke will address the annual meeting of central bankers with a speech on the Federal Reserve's policy response to the US economic outlook that will be keenly watched by the markets. Photograph: Haraz N. Ghanbari/AP
When Ben Bernanke addresses the annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole tomorrow he does so against arguably the most challenging backdrop in his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman.
At the end of a week of gloomy reports, Bernanke faces mounting expectations from markets that the Fed will step in to prop up the US's faltering economic recovery. News of stalling business activity and dismal home sales have fanned talk of a double-dip recession at a time when all the easy options have run out. At the same time, divisions appear to be emerging among his committee of policymakers. READ MORE
These are not the hyperbolic ramblings of various fringe blogs who have been claiming this for over a year, these are the non-hyperbolic ruminations of Steven Englander, until recently head FX strategist at Barclays, and recently at Citi:"A second round of QE will likely put sharp downward pressure on the USD, to some degree versus the euro and other G10 currencies, with potential for a broader USD sell-off. Foreign investors are likely to view the renewed direct intervention as indicating that the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and implicit monetization of fiscal expenditures are first line approaches to dealing with disappointing recovery prospects, rather than the exceptional measures they were meant to be initially. This could have severe implications for foreign perceptions of the quality of the US assets that they are accumulating in private and official portfolios, and may lead them to draw the conclusion that USD weakness is less a by-product than a desired outcome of these measures...It is difficult to gauge the set of policies that US policymakers will pursue to reduce the risk that the US slumps into a significant slowdown. In the current environment of extremely disappointing growth and apparent lack of response to traditional monetary stimulus, policies that are less than orthodox are likely to be considered seriously. Most of these unorthodox polices are likely to weigh on the USD." Guess what that means for gold...
