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Submitted by Steve Meyers
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Thursday, 26 August 2010 16:30 |
The Government has been warned of a “regulatory fiasco” in which British banks have apparently adhered to flawed reporting standards for more than five years.
An influential watchdog has written to the Department of Business listing a catalogue of staggering regulatory errors that allegedly contributed to the collapse of several banks in 2008 – and still threatens the system today.
While reviewing the proposed expansion of the International Financial Reporting Standards for accounting, Tim Bush, a member of the “Urgent Issues Task Force” that scrutinises the work of the Accounting Standards Board (ASB), claims to have uncovered “fatal” and “dangerous” flaws in the system. READ MORE
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Submitted by Steve Meyers
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Thursday, 26 August 2010 15:41 |
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An all-out war has broken out between Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and a prominent securities analyst who is saying that the big bank may be cooking the books by inflating its earnings through an accounting gimmick, FOX Business Network has learned.
The analyst, Mike Mayo, of the securities firm CLSA, has been telling investors that Citigroup (C: 3.72 ,+0.02 ,+0.68%) should take a writedown, or a loss on some $50 billion of “deferred-tax assets,” or DTAs. That is a tax credit the firm has on its financial statement that Mayo says is inflating profits at the big bank by as much as $10 billion. READ MORE |
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Submitted by Steve Meyers
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Thursday, 26 August 2010 14:52 |
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The latest anticipated weekly outflow from equity mutual funds just hit a one month high of $2.7 billion, as reported by ICI, and with that, YTD redemptions by equity investors have hit over $50 billion. Domestic equity mutual funds have not seen a net positive retail inflow since April 28, yet despite this the market has been substantially rangebound and until last week. What is notable is that even during times of relative stock outperformance, courtesy of whoever it is that is left buying stocks, be it HFT algos, or Primary Dealers pumped with cheap Fed liquidity (and don't forget today is another "free $2 billion courtesy of POMO" day), the investing public refuses to be drawn into owning stocks. CNBC has now failed to sucker its viewers into the stock ponzi for 16 weeks in a row and rising. The clear capital rotation winner- the bond bubble, but that is the topic for another week.
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Submitted by Steve Meyers
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Wednesday, 25 August 2010 18:23 |
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Rosenberg is going bald from all the headscratching that is going on with equity valuations. And yes, we have dissected the 10 Year to Stock correlation before, and have concluded that the fair value of the S&P with the 10 Year here is in the mid-700 range:
The consensus has certainly taken down its numbers on profits and on the economy, but by not nearly enough. The consensus of equity analysts still sees 13% growth in operating S&P 500 EPS for the coming four quarters, even though the math does not work at all. For one, margins have already very rapidly expanded to cycle highs. This means that there is very low potential for profits to grow much in excess of nominal GDP growth, which, at best, will be low single digits. That would put EPS for the next year closer to $80 than the $88 consensus forecast and place the forward P/E closer to 13x than 12x (it is 12x on consensus view). Of course, if the economy does double-dip, then we are talking about EPS going down closer to $60 if the historical pattern during downturns reasserts itself, which then means the forward P/E multiple is really north of 17x.
This is why valuation is so tough — beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Historically, the forward P/E with consensus estimates is 15.6x, and yet if you look at what we actually end up with, it is 19.2x. So the consensus is always publishing an earnings forecast that makes the market look cheap! And, this “bias” is close to 20%, on average. We still prefer the Shiller P/E, which uses the ‘bird-in-the-hand’ earnings, takes them in real terms, and cyclically-adjusts the earnings data, and the multiple here is 20.6x, which is 26% above the historical norm. So sorry, the only way you can get this market to show that it is “attractively” priced is to rely on consensus earnings projections, which by the way, are coming down but still too high. READ MORE |
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